DU-BYE BYE?
This latest article from Scott Rasmussen of rasmussenreports.com, the premier polling website in the country (it's more accurate than Zogby!) brings ecstatic news:
Dubai Ports and Election 2006
March 3, 2006--Following the 2002 mid-term elections, Scott Rasmussen released a report entitled "The GOP Generation." The basic premise was that if George W. Bush was successful in dealing with Iraq, Republicans would control both houses of Congress for at least a generation. This projection was based partly upon the political benefits that would flow from success in Iraq and partly based upon institutional factors that give the GOP some advantages in both the House and Senate.
However, the report made it clear that if the President's policies in Iraq were seen as a failure, "Democrats will be given another chance to make their case to American voters." Heading into Election 2006, the Democrats clearly have been given the chance to make their case. But until the Dubai Ports story erupted in the news, it looked as if the Democrats were heading down the wrong path and likely to let the opportunity pass.
Some Democrats are so offended by the current President that they wanted to make Impeachment a driving force of the election season. That probably would have been as successful in 2006 as it was in 1998 when Republicans focused on the Impeachment of Bill Clinton and lost ground in Congress.
Other Democrats thought (hoped) that Hurricane Katrina, the Dick Cheney hunting incident, or other issues that won't last until election day might topple the GOP from power.
A few thought the NSA wiretapping story was their big break. That turned out to be a gift for the President because he got to once again be the defender of national security. While most Americans think legal niceties should be observed, they are just as concerned about catching bad guys. The general public attitude is evenly divided between those who think we are too worried about national security and those who believe we are too worried about protecting individual liberties. Karl Rove was happy to have this issue in the news and quickly signaled that the GOP would make national security the primary issue of Election 2006
Other Democrats wanted to keep focusing on the question of how we got into Iraq rather than how we get out of the situation. Politically, this was a big loser because the public was already beginning to place more emphasis on domestic issues that favor Democrats. Until the last week or so, anything that drew attention back to Iraq was drawing attention to Bush's strongest asset--his national security credentials.
Part of this floundering was understandable frustration. In the GOP Generation, we noted that there was nothing the Democrats could do to "change the basic dynamic" of the national security issue. Their only hope was to wait for a mistake by the Bush team--a hope that was realized when the Dubai Ports story erupted on the national scene.
Our first survey on the topic found that the public opposed the Administration's decision on the ports issue by a 64% to 17% margin. For the first time ever--voters preferred Democrats in Congress over the President on national security. To put this into perspective, consider the 2002 election. That year, the President's position on national security was so solid that his party regained control of the Senate at a time when just 23% of Americans rated the economy as good or excellent. Two years later, 51% of Americans thought the U.S. and its allies were winning the War on Terror and the President was re-elected with 51% of the vote.
Republicans cannot retain control of Congress following November's election if the Democrats are competitive on national security issues.
The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato summarized the situation succinctly for us--"Since 9/11, Bush's consistent political advantage has been the public's confidence in him to handle the terrorist threat. The Iraq War has weakened Bush's edge, and now the Dubai ports misstep may destroy it. This has become a troubled and tone-deaf Presidency."
It's important to note that the Dubai Ports story is far more significant politically than the issue itself. That's because it gives people an opportunity to re-evaluate the President on a whole range of issues relating to national security. Our latest survey finds the number who think the U.S. and its Allies are winning the War on Terror has dipped below 40% and is near the lowest levels ever recorded. By a 2-to-1 margin, Americans think things in Iraq are likely to get worse in the next six months. That's the bleakest assessment since the first votes were cast in Iraq over a year ago.
Beyond that, if the Dubai ports story helps the Democrats win key Senate seats in 2006, it will have an impact far beyond this campaign season. One of the reasons that The GOP Generation was able to project lasting Senate control for the GOP was that the President's Party has an "enduring structural majority" based upon the fact that there are more Red (Republican) States than Blue (Democrat) States.
In recent years, the trend has been for Senators to be elected from the same party as the winner of that state's electoral votes. During Election 2004, eight Senate seats changed parties--all but one moved into alignment with the state's Presidential voting habits. If every state voted in this way, the GOP would have a 62-38 advantage in the Senate right now.
Any Red State Senate seats that the Democrats can pick up in Election 2006 place a lasting dent in the structural majority. At the moment, the Democrats are clearly competitive in several such races including Montana, Missouri, and Ohio. Democrats also have a good chance to take back a Blue State seat in Pennsylvania.
Just as important, Red State Democrats once thought to be in danger seem to be much more comfortable at this time. This includes Cantwell in Washington, Nelson in Florida, Stabenow in Michigan, and the open seat in Maryland.
Of course, there are still nine months to Election Day and a lot can happen. But, the situation in Iraq has given the Democrats the opportunity to regain majority status in Congress; the Dubai ports issue has provided a rallying point; and, the President has lost the initiative on his signature issue.
Unless the President can re-establish dominance on the national security issue, the opportunity for George W. Bush to leave behind a GOP Generation will disappear.
Dubai Ports and Election 2006
March 3, 2006--Following the 2002 mid-term elections, Scott Rasmussen released a report entitled "The GOP Generation." The basic premise was that if George W. Bush was successful in dealing with Iraq, Republicans would control both houses of Congress for at least a generation. This projection was based partly upon the political benefits that would flow from success in Iraq and partly based upon institutional factors that give the GOP some advantages in both the House and Senate.
However, the report made it clear that if the President's policies in Iraq were seen as a failure, "Democrats will be given another chance to make their case to American voters." Heading into Election 2006, the Democrats clearly have been given the chance to make their case. But until the Dubai Ports story erupted in the news, it looked as if the Democrats were heading down the wrong path and likely to let the opportunity pass.
Some Democrats are so offended by the current President that they wanted to make Impeachment a driving force of the election season. That probably would have been as successful in 2006 as it was in 1998 when Republicans focused on the Impeachment of Bill Clinton and lost ground in Congress.
Other Democrats thought (hoped) that Hurricane Katrina, the Dick Cheney hunting incident, or other issues that won't last until election day might topple the GOP from power.
A few thought the NSA wiretapping story was their big break. That turned out to be a gift for the President because he got to once again be the defender of national security. While most Americans think legal niceties should be observed, they are just as concerned about catching bad guys. The general public attitude is evenly divided between those who think we are too worried about national security and those who believe we are too worried about protecting individual liberties. Karl Rove was happy to have this issue in the news and quickly signaled that the GOP would make national security the primary issue of Election 2006
Other Democrats wanted to keep focusing on the question of how we got into Iraq rather than how we get out of the situation. Politically, this was a big loser because the public was already beginning to place more emphasis on domestic issues that favor Democrats. Until the last week or so, anything that drew attention back to Iraq was drawing attention to Bush's strongest asset--his national security credentials.
Part of this floundering was understandable frustration. In the GOP Generation, we noted that there was nothing the Democrats could do to "change the basic dynamic" of the national security issue. Their only hope was to wait for a mistake by the Bush team--a hope that was realized when the Dubai Ports story erupted on the national scene.
Our first survey on the topic found that the public opposed the Administration's decision on the ports issue by a 64% to 17% margin. For the first time ever--voters preferred Democrats in Congress over the President on national security. To put this into perspective, consider the 2002 election. That year, the President's position on national security was so solid that his party regained control of the Senate at a time when just 23% of Americans rated the economy as good or excellent. Two years later, 51% of Americans thought the U.S. and its allies were winning the War on Terror and the President was re-elected with 51% of the vote.
Republicans cannot retain control of Congress following November's election if the Democrats are competitive on national security issues.
The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato summarized the situation succinctly for us--"Since 9/11, Bush's consistent political advantage has been the public's confidence in him to handle the terrorist threat. The Iraq War has weakened Bush's edge, and now the Dubai ports misstep may destroy it. This has become a troubled and tone-deaf Presidency."
It's important to note that the Dubai Ports story is far more significant politically than the issue itself. That's because it gives people an opportunity to re-evaluate the President on a whole range of issues relating to national security. Our latest survey finds the number who think the U.S. and its Allies are winning the War on Terror has dipped below 40% and is near the lowest levels ever recorded. By a 2-to-1 margin, Americans think things in Iraq are likely to get worse in the next six months. That's the bleakest assessment since the first votes were cast in Iraq over a year ago.
Beyond that, if the Dubai ports story helps the Democrats win key Senate seats in 2006, it will have an impact far beyond this campaign season. One of the reasons that The GOP Generation was able to project lasting Senate control for the GOP was that the President's Party has an "enduring structural majority" based upon the fact that there are more Red (Republican) States than Blue (Democrat) States.
In recent years, the trend has been for Senators to be elected from the same party as the winner of that state's electoral votes. During Election 2004, eight Senate seats changed parties--all but one moved into alignment with the state's Presidential voting habits. If every state voted in this way, the GOP would have a 62-38 advantage in the Senate right now.
Any Red State Senate seats that the Democrats can pick up in Election 2006 place a lasting dent in the structural majority. At the moment, the Democrats are clearly competitive in several such races including Montana, Missouri, and Ohio. Democrats also have a good chance to take back a Blue State seat in Pennsylvania.
Just as important, Red State Democrats once thought to be in danger seem to be much more comfortable at this time. This includes Cantwell in Washington, Nelson in Florida, Stabenow in Michigan, and the open seat in Maryland.
Of course, there are still nine months to Election Day and a lot can happen. But, the situation in Iraq has given the Democrats the opportunity to regain majority status in Congress; the Dubai ports issue has provided a rallying point; and, the President has lost the initiative on his signature issue.
Unless the President can re-establish dominance on the national security issue, the opportunity for George W. Bush to leave behind a GOP Generation will disappear.
posted by EnterCenter at 9:36 AM
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